Election Day

I voted this morning, casting the 52nd ballot in my precinct, and at least one vote for Kerry in this battleground state. The polls were busier than any other election I've been at, and I had to wait in line about 15 minutes. Had Iowa not been a "battleground state", I'd probably have voted for Nader, as I think the largest problem with our political system is the inappropriate influence of big corporations, an issue which he clearly takes to heart.

Now, for my predictions. I look to Ohio to be the bellwether in this election, and I think whoever carries Ohio is going to win it. While I'm no expert, in 2000 I predicted that whoever carried Florida would win. I think the winner is likely to be Kerry, as the Republicans on TV have seemed to be pretty desperate in the last few days. I caught Guiliani on Meet The Press on Sunday, and it was an ugly performance, to say the least. I used to like Rudy, he was a moderate Republican who seemed to have some integrity, but on Sunday he turned into some psychotic negative campaign robot, saying that by criticizing President Bush that Kerry wasn't supporting the troops. What?

So, I'm led to believe that the internal numbers that the Republicans are getting aren't giving them much confidence, and I think that the Democrats are organized and mobilized this year, and are truly going to have massive voter turnout. Combine that with the cell-phone polling issue (I'm a Kerry voter with no landline, and so are two of my co-workers), and the number of new voters who dislike Bush enough to actually show up to vote, and I think a Kerry victory is quite possible.

I know a few people who are Republicans who voted for Bush in 2000, but are voting for Kerry this time. I don't know any Democrats who are voting for Bush. I also think Bush has done more to piss people off than he has to attract new voters. He's weakened his support among moderate Republicans by racking up huge deficits, and attempting to modify the Constitution to outlaw gay marriage. While the "War on Terror" may trump some of that, the damage done to U.S. credibility in Iraq will hurt him as well.

That said, I may have some egg on my face tomorrow, but I'm willing to accept that risk. I do hope that whoever wins, they win by at least 30 in the Electoral College, so that recounts and court battles are largely unimportant.

Endorsement

If you're looking for a thoughtful and honest essay, discussing both the merits and failures of Bush and Kerry, look no further than the one written by Andrew Sullivan in The New Republic, where he endorses one of the two for President.

Worst Wishes

From the State Dept. daily press briefing transcript, by way of Andrew Sullivan:

QUESTION: Did you hear that Castro fell?

MR. BOUCHER: We heard that Castro fell. There are, I think, various reports that he broke a leg, an arm, a foot, and other things, and I'd guess you'd have to check with the Cubans to find out what's broken about Mr. Castro. We, obviously, have expressed our views about what's broken in Cuba.

QUESTION: Do you wish him a speedy recovery?

MR. BOUCHER: No.

QUESTION: No? Do you wish him a speedy demise?

MR. BOUCHER: I'll leave the man's health alone. I think our view --

QUESTION: Would you have preferred that his injuries be more life threatening? (Laughter.) People have come out, including your former boss --

MR. BOUCHER: I know.

QUESTION: -- and said things like, well, we hope the actuarial tables catch up with Mr. Castro. Are you disappointed that he wasn't more seriously wounded?

MR. BOUCHER: I'm not going to express that kind of disappointment. I think, you know, the events speak for themselves. The situation in Cuban is of our primary concern. The situation of Mr. Castro is of little concern to us, but unfortunately of enormous importance to the people of Cuba, who have suffered very long under his rule. And we think that the kind of rule that Cuba has had should be ended.

Anyone else have visions of a press conference from The West Wing while reading this?

Who to vote for?

Via Aprille, I used the Presidential Candidate Selector to determine who I should vote for: 1. Your ideal theoretical candidate.   (100%) 2. Cobb, David - Green Party   (77%) 3. Nader, Ralph - Independent   (77%) 4. Brown, Walt - Socialist Party   (66%) 5. Kerry, Senator John, MA - Democrat   (64%) 6. Badnarik, Michael - Libertarian   (46%) 7. Bush, President George W. - Republican   (18%) 8. Peroutka, Michael - Constitution Party   (16%)

Got Blogs?

While in Russia, I'm giving a presentation on weblogs. Here's the title: "Weblogs: The Changing Face of Academic and Political Discussion Online"

It's going to be a fairly short talk, as they translate it into Russian in real-time, thus reducing the amount of time I'm going to be blathering by half. I've already got some sites selected to showcase in my presentation, but if you've got a favorite political or academic weblog that you think is important or interesting, and worth a mention, please post it in the comments below, and I'll add it to my talk.