Election Day

John Kerry I voted this morning, casting the 52nd ballot in my precinct, and at least one vote for Kerry in this battleground state. The polls were busier than any other election I've been at, and I had to wait in line about 15 minutes. Had Iowa not been a "battleground state", I'd probably have voted for Nader, as I think the largest problem with our political system is the inappropriate influence of big corporations, an issue which he clearly takes to heart.

Now, for my predictions. I look to Ohio to be the bellwether in this election, and I think whoever carries Ohio is going to win it. While I'm no expert, in 2000 I predicted that whoever carried Florida would win. I think the winner is likely to be Kerry, as the Republicans on TV have seemed to be pretty desperate in the last few days. I caught Guiliani on Meet The Press on Sunday, and it was an ugly performance, to say the least. I used to like Rudy, he was a moderate Republican who seemed to have some integrity, but on Sunday he turned into some psychotic negative campaign robot, saying that by criticizing President Bush that Kerry wasn't supporting the troops. What?

So, I'm led to believe that the internal numbers that the Republicans are getting aren't giving them much confidence, and I think that the Democrats are organized and mobilized this year, and are truly going to have massive voter turnout. Combine that with the cell-phone polling issue (I'm a Kerry voter with no landline, and so are two of my co-workers), and the number of new voters who dislike Bush enough to actually show up to vote, and I think a Kerry victory is quite possible.

I know a few people who are Republicans who voted for Bush in 2000, but are voting for Kerry this time. I don't know any Democrats who are voting for Bush. I also think Bush has done more to piss people off than he has to attract new voters. He's weakened his support among moderate Republicans by racking up huge deficits, and attempting to modify the Constitution to outlaw gay marriage. While the "War on Terror" may trump some of that, the damage done to U.S. credibility in Iraq will hurt him as well.

That said, I may have some egg on my face tomorrow, but I'm willing to accept that risk. I do hope that whoever wins, they win by at least 30 in the Electoral College, so that recounts and court battles are largely unimportant.